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Updated June 2020

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Production: Production of crude oil in 2019 decreased by 1 per cent compared with 2018, averaging 76.9 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 483.9 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). Depending on which oil price forecast is used, production is forecast to decrease to between 51.8 103 m3/d (326 103 bbl/d) and 61.3 103 m3/d (385.8 103 bbl/d) by 2029, as modest increases to the number of wells placed on production over the forecast period will not offset declines in production. Crude oil accounted for less than 15 per cent of total marketable oil production in Alberta, which also includes bitumen production.

Number of wells: The number of wells placed on production decreased by 11 per cent in 2019 compared with 2018 because of market access constraints and policy uncertainty.  Producers are more disciplined with their investments and have shifted capital spending programs away from new growth wells. Instead, they are reducing debt and focusing returns to investors, buying back shares, and paying dividends.

The number of new wells placed on production is projected to decrease from 1745 wells in 2019 to 1670 wells by 2029, with the majority of wells drilled targeting the Mannville Group and the Cardium and Viking Formations.

Demand: Alberta demand for total oil (upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen plus crude oil and pentanes plus) was 86.7 103 m3/d (545.6 103 bbl/d) in 2019. Crude oil accounted for 21.5 per cent of total Alberta demand at 18.6 103 m3/d (117 103 bbl/d). The remaining oil produced was removed from the province. Without new refineries or significant expansions, Alberta demand is expected to remain relatively unchanged with consistent refinery throughputs and removals projected to increase throughout the forecast period.