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Updated June 2020

Figure S4.6 shows the historical and forecast of Alberta's demand and disposition of crude oil. Unlike the production forecasts, the demand outlook only reflects the base case for oil prices.

Demand

In 2019

Alberta demand for crude oil was 18.6 103 m3/d (117 103 bbl/d) in 2019, which is a decrease from 19.2 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d), or 120.8 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d), in 2018.

Figure S4.7 shows Alberta's operating refineries in 2019 had an estimated total throughput of 82.9 103 m3/d (521.7 103 m3/d) of crude oil equivalent, representing a utilization rate of 96.2 per cent for throughput to refinery capacity.

Of the total throughput,

  • 26 per cent was crude oil and pentanes,
  • 70 per cent was synthetic crude oil, and
  • 4 per cent was nonupgraded bitumen.
Forecast for 2020 to 2029

We do not expect Alberta demand for crude oil to increase over the forecast period. Despite proposals for future refineries, there are limited prospects for future refinery demand in Alberta over the forecast period. The province cancelled its Partial Upgrading Program and its expression of interest for refineries in October 2019 due to the financial risk of guaranteed loans, putting future partial upgrading and refining projects at risk.

Removals

In 2019

In Alberta, 75.8 per cent of the 76.9 103 m3/d (483.9 103 m3/d) total crude oil produced was removed, which is a slight increase from the 75.2 per cent that was removed in 2018. All oil inventories were assumed to eventually be removed from Alberta. Total oil removals (upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen plus crude oil and pentanes plus) in 2019 was 530.2 103 m3/d (3.3 106 bbl/d), with crude oil accounting for 58.3 103 m3/d (370 103 m3/d), or roughly 11 per cent of removals.

Forecast for 2019 to 2028

Crude oil removals from Alberta are expected to decrease by 27 per cent, to 61.3 103 m3/d (385.8 103 m3/d) by 2029 because of decreased production and no additions to Alberta crude oil demand. Total oil removals will increase to 683.1 103 m3/d (4.3 106 bbl/d) by 2029, and the share of crude oil removals is expected to fall to about 6.2 per cent because of continued growth in nonupgraded bitumen production. Pipeline takeaway capacities are projected increase during the forecast period and support increased total oil production and removals.

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